2016 in Review

This is my last column for 2016. What a year it was, I am quite confident that there are many fortune tellers and others who predict the future that are scratching their heads and saying, “I didn’t see that coming.” I suppose every year is like that but this year seems even more surprising and unforeseen. But you must admit it was kind of fun, like a roller coaster or a movie with a great plot twist.

I know depending on your point of view it was entertaining or horrifying but just for one second remove your personal feelings and interests and look at what happened. TV writers couldn’t have come up with a better script to keep you on the edge of your seat. Again, you may have had your hands over your eyes or been pumping your fist. I am almost certain that no matter what your viewpoint you did both this year.

Yes, it was entertaining but I hope the events of this year are not a pattern or a sign of things to come. It seemed like everything was taken to the extreme. In the elections (let’s face it, the elections were the biggest, strangest, most entertaining event of the year) we had a choice between the two extremes. I guess the middle has become boring so we are attracted to the far end of the spectrum. Was it exhilarating for horrifying. I guess that depends on your own personal views and I prefer to keep mine to myself.

The work of our government also followed this pattern of extreme. Seemingly gone are the days of compromise and civil discussions. It appears you are a winner or a loser and the only way to get your point across is to shout down your opponent. Heaven help us if you lose, then pouting and protesting seems to be the order of the day. I certainly miss the days of civility and grace.

The markets also seem to have followed this trend of extremism too. Whether it is the stock market or the commodity markets, I do not ever recall such big shifts at one time. I remember the good old days when there were patterns to the market and you kind of knew what was coming. Now a gain one minute can be followed by a big loss in just a blink of an eye. I suspect there is a pattern to all of this but I have trouble seeing it.

Even the weather is marked more by extremes than I ever remember. Just look at last week. We are just coming off one of the nicest fall weather patterns in recent memory and boom, we go right to the coldest weather in many, many years. Then all the sudden we are right back into a nice, mild pattern in just the span of a couple of days. I know this is Kansas but give me a break.

I suppose most years are like this if you take the time to look at them in the rear-view mirror, but this year seems pretty wild. I remember when I used to watch TV dramas with outlandish plot twists because they were entertaining and thought provoking. Now I watch even the most far out show with the most outrageous script and that little voice in the back of my head says, “you know that it could happen.”

The one thing I will say about 2016 is that it was not boring. Years from now we will look back on this year with more clarity and know exactly what kind of year it was. Will 2016 be an outlier, one marked with extremes and once in a lifetime events or will it be just a marker on a trend line. I suspect the answer will be yes. Some of the events will be extreme and “once in a lifetime” happenings while others will be an indication of the future. Only time will tell.

Will any of this be an indication for what 2017 will be like? Maybe, all I really know is that I have no idea what will happen next year. I know, just like 2016, some of next year will be good, some will be not so good but all of it will happen no matter what I think of it.

However, as we bring 2016 to a close all I can say is that it was one of the wildest years I ever remember. In fact, it was so intriguing that I am anxious to see what plot twists and unexpected surprises the next year will bring us. All I can say is, take a deep breath, buckle up and hang on for dear life, here comes 2017.

2015 In the Review Mirror

This is the last column of 2015. It is hard to believe that once again I am here with another whole year in the rear view mirror. I would really like to pull over into the right lane or even the shoulder for a while and get out of the passing lane. Time seems like it keeps building up speed and passing faster and faster all the time. Needless to say, 2015 was a blur.

On a personal level it sure was a momentous year. My family survived a knee surgery and recovery. Basketball season has gone a lot better at my house so far this year (that knocking on wood sound you hear is me). We have also experienced half of a senior year complete with the last football game and the successful completion of a senior exit project. Oh and there was that whole college acceptance letter thing too. I have a feeling that the last semester of the senior year is an even bigger roller coaster.

As far as the whole world of agriculture goes, 2015 will not go down as a banner year. We all knew this type of a year was coming but I can’t imagine any of us were ready for it. The market analysts thought it was a few months to a year away. 2015 became what 2016 was supposed to be. The two most unpredictable things I know are weather and crop markets and both of them lived up to the billing.

I know I am only speaking for my little part of the Flint Hills but this year was marked with extreme swings in precipitation. I heard this morning that 2015 will go down as one of the five wettest and maybe even the second wettest years on record. Those of us living here know that the rain was not spread out over the entire twelve months but came in basically two months; the rest of the year was pretty dry.

I am not complaining, I generally don’t complain about moisture, we did have enough and at the right time. Crop yields were really good for the corn and passable for the beans and we had plenty of grass and hay. Sure we were a month late getting the beans planted and the hay baled, but it is easier to figure out what to do with too much rather than too little rain. This summer was an odd year and one that presented many challenges,

Thank goodness we did raise decent crops because it would have been really bad if we had not. I am sure we are all painfully aware of what happened to nearly all of our commodity markets this past year. We may have raised a good crop but the bottom line was pretty thin. The cattle market wasn’t much better and we finally seem to be seeing the downturn that has been expected for a long time now,

To be honest, things don’t look too rosy for 2016 either. This past fall and early winter I have visited with many farmers, ranchers, economists and Ag business people and all are feeling the pinch and no one sees much relief in the coming year. I think the only hope most of us have is the knowledge that the markets are unpredictable and there is a good chance the long-term forecasts could be wrong.

I know, I am not very uplifting and it almost seems like being on the edge of the thunderstorm. The western sky is dark and menacing, the wind is picking up and the first big drops are starting to hit the ground. Things don’t look good. However, I have not met anyone who is ready to give up. We all cuss and discuss this past year and we start to speculate about next year and that is when it happens.

The conversation about the current year usually wraps up with someone saying something like, “I guess it could have been worse.” Then the discussion about the upcoming year usually turns to a determination to not let the situation get us down and suddenly optimism breaks out. I am not saying anyone is giddy with anticipation for the next year but most of us still have hope for it.

That is why I like being around my fellow farmers and ranchers, no matter how dark the horizon might be there is hope. We know that, of all the professions in this world, we can least afford to give up. With a hungry world we must plow on and plant the next year’s crop. The idea of giving up is not anywhere in our heads. Yes, there may be storm clouds on the horizon but with the storm comes the rain and rain is a good thing. So bring on 2016 and its weather and crop markets, I am ready.